一年被做空3次,市值蒸发超百亿,安踏体育为什么成了狙击目标

来源:深蓝财经      日期:2019-07-08     浏览数:6829次
一年被做空3次,市值蒸发超百亿,安踏体育为什么成了狙击目标

安踏叒被做空了!

今日上午,著名的沽空机构浑水(Muddy Waters Research)发表了针对安踏体育(2020.HK)的沽空报告,称安踏为“酒碗里的大便”。

沽空报告发布后,安踏体育早盘一度暴跌超8%。午时,报每股51.25港元/股,较上一交易日跌7.32%,市值蒸发109亿。

随后安踏体育发布公告,公司股份于7月8日下午短暂停止买卖。公司将对一份本公司认为载有不实及有误导成分资料的报告作出回应。

而这已经是一年多以来安踏体育第3次被做空了,从沽空报告造成的影响来看,似乎也一次比一次严重。

13个月内遭遇3次沽空

2018年6月,沽空机构GMT Research质疑安踏体育利润率“高得难以置信”。安踏体育予以强烈否认,股价未受明显影响,随后一路走高。

2019年5月30日,沽空机构杀人鲸(Blue Orca Capital)质疑安踏体育的公司治理及旗下品牌FILA收入不透明,预计安踏体育股价会有34%跌幅。该消息导致安踏体育盘中跳水,一度跌超12%。次日盘前,安踏体育连发两则公告,表示强烈否认。随后其股价高开逾1.8%,收报48.0元/股,涨2.24%。

与前两次沽空报告相同,此次浑水也将矛头指向了安踏体育的超高的利润率和财务作假。

浑水指出,安踏在运营和营销方面,有很多令人钦佩的地方,但还有一个可怕的事实:投资者不能相信安踏体育的财务数据。因为安踏体育的利润率之所以领先于行业,并不是因为经营状况良好,而是因为安踏控制了大量分销商,欺骗性地提高了利润率。

实际上,关联方虚假交易,是很多上市公司伪造销售额的常用手段之一。简单来说,就是上市公司将一些受集团控制的公司列为购货方,在利润不足时将大量产品“销售”给这些公司,其实商品仍在上市公司,但向这些公司开出发票和提货单,虚构出大额销售。

浑水称有充分的证据表明安踏秘密控制其经销商,并例举出了安踏秘密控制的27家经销商,其中有25家或为一级经销商。根据访谈,浑水认为安踏秘密控制的分销商数量至少是安踏一级分销商的70%。

而安踏体育则声称他们是独立的第三方,这是一个谎言,安踏的高级管理人员甚至会将分销商称为“子公司”。

安踏2017年年报显示,其2017年总收益为167亿元。

沽空报告中指出,根据我们收到的实体信用报告,这些分销商2017年的销售成本约人民币55亿元,约占安踏总收入的三分之一。但这些分销商的毛利率仅为7%至8%,净利润率接近于零。分销商的低毛利率和净利润率,支持了我们的观点,即安踏正在利用其对这些分销商的控制权,欺诈性地夸大其报告的利润。

此外,浑水采访了4位安踏的前高级经理和主要经销商广州市安大贸易发展有限公司的1位前经理,均称安踏体育对分销商进行过投资。

舒华体育招股书曾暴露关联交易

关于沽空报告中所指出的,控制分销商的问题,安踏体育方面还未给出明确回复。

但2019年6月上旬,安踏体育的一家服务商——舒华体育,递交了招股说明书,而这份招股说明书确实暴露出了安踏体育与舒华体育之间的隐形关联交易。

招股说明书显示,2016年至2018年,安踏体育一直是舒华体育前两大客户;也已经连续两年成为第一大客户。销售金额分别为6302.50万元、1.32亿元、1.68亿元;分别占公司当期营业收入的5.93%、11.63%、14.21%。

由安踏体育首席执行官、执行董事兼董事会主席丁世忠作为实控人的林芝安大,同时也是舒华体育控股5%以上的大股东。

然而,舒华体育对此却未做关联交易说明。

“买买买”或扩大沽空报告影响

安踏体育2018年年报显示,安踏体育营收达241亿元,同比增长44.5%;净利润41亿元,同比增长32.87%;净现金997亿,资产总值2437亿元。

但安踏体育并非全无问题。

2009年,安踏体育收购意大利运动品牌FILA,大获成功之后。从2015年开始,安踏体育不断“买买买”,根本停不下来。

2015年,完成对英国户外休闲及登山运动品牌SPRANDI的收购;

2016年,斥资1.5亿元收购高端滑雪品牌DESCENTE的中国区业务;

2017年,全资收购童装品牌KINGKOW;同年成立合资公司在中国经营户外品牌KOLON SPORT。年底,拿下冬奥会中国队装备独家赞助权。

2018年12月,安踏体育以8.06亿元竞得上海青浦区西虹桥蟠中路北侧商地,楼面价9203元/平方米。

同样遭2018年12月,安踏体育正式宣布联合腾讯在内的三方投资者收购芬兰体育用品品牌Amer Sports。2019年3月,安踏发布公告称,投资者财团宣布成功完成收购亚玛芬体育的要约,涉及金额46亿欧元(355亿人民币)。

对亚玛芬的收购难度极大,一方面收购金额巨大,另一方面亚玛芬债务高企,净债务达8.2亿欧元,都会对安踏的现金流和运营带来考验。事实上,也有不少公司因为跨国收购,导致消化不良。

在这个时间节点,投资者的看法显得十分重要,尤其是6月26日,安踏体育发布公告,Dennis J.Wilson 以每股49.11港元的认购价,认购该公司约0.6%的股份,认购款为7.78亿港元,此笔交易所得的资金将作为安踏体育的一般营运资金。

浑水也特意在报告中指出,安踏有很多优势,这是优秀的运动服企业家Chip Wilson同意投资他的原因。

此时出现沽空报告,或会对投资者的信心产生影响。

多家投行看好安踏体育

但不少投行与沽空机构的态度不同,从安踏体育发布2018年全年业绩以来,今年上半年有多家投行均表示看好安踏体育,并适度调高了目标价格。

7月5日,德意志银行发布报告称,将安踏体育股票目标价从45.5港元上调至50港元,并维持买入评级。

6月28日,高盛发布报告称,给予安踏体育12个月目标价为66港元,并重申“买入”的投资评级。

摩根大通对安踏2019年的表现维持信心,认为今年销售将录得24%增长。

美银美林将安踏体育目标价升至52.3元港币,表示安踏强劲的盈利表现将会反映到股价走势上,预计今年增长稳定。

富瑞将安踏体育目标价由48港元升至53港元,维持“买入”评级。富瑞还上调了安踏2019年收入及盈利预测,分别为8.8%及4.1%。

国盛证券点评安踏公司2018年报,称其为里程碑之年。给出安踏体育目标价44.0港币,维持“买入”评级。

天风证券预计安踏体育2019年将继续实现高增长。将目标价格定为48元港币,给予买入评级。

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