红刊财经 相信均值回归的力量

来源:新浪财经      日期:02-15 13:32     浏览数:4404次
红刊财经 相信均值回归的力量

来源:红刊财经

红刊财经:谢长艳

本周,A股延续疫情大跌后的反攻态势。从市场表现看,创业板指数最强,先是收复失地,接着再创四年来的新高,还带动了中小盘指数的活跃。相对来说,沪深300就显得魄力不足。

市场的表现可以说是“题材炒作看空不做空,蓝筹叫好不叫座”。

创业板火热的主要逻辑在于,市场认为过去几年对创业板形成压制的金融去杠杆进程基本结束,创业板个股的风险释放充分,尤其是在看到创业板个股业绩绝大部分企稳以及政策面鼓励创新的情况下,创业板回到“炒作周期”。

从成交额来说,创业板已经进入“高景气周期”。截至本周四,创业板最近8个交易日日均成交1900亿元,较一月份日均增三成,已回到历史峰值水平。

但如果认为“有赚钱效应就是牛市”就大错特错了。因为节后的创业板带动创业指数走强的股票,多是由疫情引发的题材股,与创业板的基本面也没太大关系,如在线教育股、居家办公网络股等。即使是资质不错且受益于疫情情绪影响的医药股,走势也出现分化,不少公司的高股价已经透支了公司基本面。

看似容易赚到的钱,一般都是水中月。而且事件性驱动所产生的行情不可能长久,均值回归会把某些估值高企的股票打入万丈深渊。

本刊接触的海内外职业投资人提醒,创业板的估值水平超过纳斯达克,但个股的质量弱于纳斯达克。而集中于沪深300的一些权重股,其估值水平接近历史低点,这暗示着确定性投资机会的出现。

因为均值回归从来都不可阻挡,请相信均值回归的力量。

(本文刊发于2月15日《红周刊》)

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