汇正财经:大消费领涨分化行情下新的选择!

来源:东方财富网      日期:03-26 18:01     浏览数:5953次
汇正财经:大消费领涨分化行情下新的选择!

周四两市集体低开,早盘市场在农业和医药带动下,创指率先翻红,随后银行板块震荡上行,协同大消费带动沪指一度翻红,但两市量能不济,资金缺乏进攻意愿。午后指数震荡回落,三大股指纷纷转跌,尾盘疫情概念逆势走强。整体上看两市个股跌多涨少,北向资金小幅净流出。

市场连续两日缩量反弹未改弱势格局,但沪指仍站于5日线上方,短期还有震荡整固可能。在市场上尚未转变弱势前,建议大家保持谨慎,盘中谨慎追高。科技股整体抛压严重,短期抄底机会不大,大消费板块预期性强烈,可以考虑继续关注。整体仓位不宜过高,耐心等待市场回暖。

北上资金今天出现流出,美股期货盘中也以震荡为主。现在美股的走势跟A股15年的创指很像,第一轮国家救市后,市场流动性得以缓解,短期风险偏好提升,会带来一轮周期较短的反弹,之前我们称之为“政策底”。但“政策底”之后往往还会出现“市场底”。15年创业板“市场底”的形成是由于去杠杆后带来的企业债务危机。所有的资产泡沫都很类似,都会跌到足够便宜的程度才会有资金愿意进场,从底层的泡沫资产来看,美股的挤泡沫过程已经开始,而当前美股估值仍处于60%历史分位数水平,后续恐怕还会有调整压力。美国债市随着盈利下滑、债务到期,实质性的违约恐怕还在后面。由此可见,全球市场反弹大概率是短期的,不排除市场二次探底的可能。

美股有二次探底可能,那么A股是否能走出独立行情呢?我们知道自全球化以来,中国已经成为全球产业链中最重要的一环,尽管中国内部疫情危机已经解除,但从全球供应链的角度来看,本次新冠疫情凸显了产业外迁带来的全球供应链风险。疫情震中已经从中国转移到欧美地区,相关国家正是世界制造业和能源供应链的枢纽,尤其是机电、半导体、运输设备、化工以及矿物燃料等方面的供应。若疫情在欧盟、美国等主要经济体得不到控制,将从生产资料供应、资本供给和最终消费市场三个方面对全球供应链产生极大的冲击。

正是由于这样的经历,A股市场自三月中旬开始缩量之后,量能一直保持在较低的水平。前期带动市场情绪的大科技表现颓靡,从近几个交易日的龙虎榜可以看到,一线游资尝试做科技龙头的反弹,但机构却持续做空。机构投资不担心业绩回落,畏惧的是行业不确定性。国产芯片、消费电子这样的高估值板块,一旦全球科技产业停摆,即便获得再多的政策支持,业绩成长也难以消化当前的泡沫。所以只有等欧美疫情出现拐点,才有评估科技行业重启的可能。

从3月16日的盘后文章起,上海汇正财经就不断和大家提大消费的预期,很明显科技线衰退,大消费这种防御和预期兼备的板块是资金的必然选择。现在大消费这个群体出现了几大细分方向:农业(种业蔬果猪肉)、白酒(消费蓝筹)、汽车、传媒(游戏影视)、旅游酒店。我们从风险偏好来看,可以把疫情控制做为一个变量,最坏的估计下,疫情持续1-2年,全球产业链停滞,经济陷入衰退,那么农业将是消费板块中最强势的一个方向。最乐观的估计,上半年控制住疫情,国内的旅游、酒店全部恢复运营,现在这个价位则是最好的潜伏时机。

白酒、汽车、传媒则是消费刺激政策下的超预期修复机会,投资风险偏中性,是比较稳妥的投资方向。近期有消息传出各国禁止出口粮食,金健米业受消息刺激二连板,资金记忆性的去炒作隆平高科、北大荒,重现了08年金融危机后的炒粮食行情。但历史证明,国家从来不在民生问题上犯含糊,国家储备粮是绝对充足的,所以这个方向只能做超短。在大消费行情从左侧逐步进入右侧的明牌博弈阶段,纯题材的炒作很难走远。

(文章来源:汇正财经)

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